Is Jonas Vingegaard ready to beat Tadej Pogačar and go from Giro to hero at the Tour de France?
Jonas Vingegaard, the Danish cycling sensation, is on a mission. After dominating the Giro d'Italia, he's now setting his sights on the Tour de France, aiming to become just the ninth man to win both the Giro and the Tour in the same year. But can he dethrone Tadej Pogačar, the current Tour champion, and claim the coveted yellow jersey?
Vingegaard's performance at the Giro was nothing short of impressive. He won five of the six mountain stages, showcasing his dominance and securing the maglia rosa. This victory not only made him the eighth man in history to win all three Grand Tours but also set the stage for a potential showdown with Pogačar at the Tour.
The Danish rider's confidence is palpable. He declared his readiness for the Tour, stating, 'I believe I will be in very, very good shape for the Tour de France.' This belief is shared by his team, Visma, who anticipate a closer battle between Vingegaard and Pogačar than the previous year.
However, the path to victory is not without challenges. The conventional wisdom suggests that riding the Giro d'Italia exhausts a GC rider, making it difficult to perform at the same level in the Tour. History supports this, as it took 26 years for a rider to achieve the Giro-Tour double, with Marco Pantani's 1998 success followed by Pogačar's 2024 victory.
Vingegaard, however, has reasons to be optimistic. His performances in the Vuelta a España after the Tour have been impressive, and he believes he can maintain his form. The fact that he didn't have a serious rival at the Giro, riding at 90% capacity, suggests that he has the potential to go deeper and perform even better.
The Danish rider's recovery from a severe accident two springs ago is another factor in his favor. He made a remarkable comeback, finishing second at the Tour and then winning the Vuelta. His team's medical and coaching staff predicted that it would take until the 2026 season for him to fully recover, and the Giro suggests that this process is bearing fruit.
Vingegaard's training philosophy, under the guidance of his coach Mathieu Heijboer, has been instrumental in his success. Heijboer explains that they focused on controlled but high-pressured training, ensuring that Vingegaard didn't overtrain and could recover properly. This approach has allowed Vingegaard to maintain his form and perform at a high level.
The team's management structure is another aspect that could impact the Tour. The departure of Grischa Niermann, the team's head of racing, has been a surprise, but Visma has a ready-made successor in Marc Reef. This change, however, is not expected to hinder Vingegaard's preparation.
One of the key challenges for Vingegaard is his time-trialling performance. Pogačar has been dominant in this discipline, winning three of his last six Grand Tour time trials. Vingegaard, on the other hand, has struggled in flat TT courses, where his lighter weight and power output disadvantage him. Heijboer acknowledges this as a potential issue, but believes that Vingegaard can make up for it in the mountains.
The battle between Vingegaard and Pogačar is expected to be close, with bonus seconds playing a crucial role. Pogačar has averaged 50 bonus seconds in each Tour edition, while Vingegaard has averaged 29. This disparity could be a significant factor in determining the winner.
Despite the challenges, Heijboer remains confident in Vingegaard's ability to perform at his best. He believes that Vingegaard has a better level now than he did last year and is optimistic about his chances in the 2026 Tour. The question remains: will Pogačar's dominance continue, or will Vingegaard claim his third Grand Tour victory?
